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additional comments on "Is The Housing Market Going To Crash Again?"
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okay I hope you actually understand everything else happening in our universe right now and I pray you are correct…. it would just keep things simple. Bottom line if you want to talk real estate be sure you also understand what's occuring around you that could affect prices… not that I'm a genius but it's fair to say sometimes it has less to do with real estate and more to do with other things…. and yes, experts of our industry should be watching those as well… otherwise your just telling me if I feel something once you hit my knee…
Residential Real estate is all about Location | Demographics | Jobs/Income | Desire
It doesn't matter how much you put down or how many hoops you make people jump through to get a loan. If it takes two people to make the payment and one of them looses their job the loan is most likely going to go into default. The problems of the past in realestate have always revolved around jobs and not about poor lending practices ….Remember, in July of 2007, 97% of the loans in the US were performing. Mortgage Bankers haven't been acused of fraud, its the big banks
I am not as concerned (initially)with a housing crash as much as I am a recession which would then lead to the housing market constricting(along with many other industries).
Hey… what happened to my fraud fighting heros on "Think Big Work Small?" Miss you. As for todays post… Big optimism. Impressive chart. Sounds familiar. For the rest of the masses that might read this… Trust your gut, filter the hype. Seattle, BEWARE.
Hey… what happened to my fraud fighting heros on "Think Big Work Small?" Miss you. As for todays post… Big optimism. Impressive chart. Sounds familiar. For the rest of the masses that might read this… Trust your gut, filter the hype. Seattle, BEWARE.
Ryan, Ryan, Ryan…. how we forget all history. I hear this a lot “the loans are so good these days the market isn’t going to crash, I mean look at the liar loans we did back in the day…” We’ll what people seem to forget is that from 1970 to 2000 we didn’t have the liar loans we had 28/33 max debt to income ratios, we had more down-payment requirements and stringent underwriting standards. Our underwriting standards now are 43% DTI and in some cases automated approvals coming in at 50+ DTI and many programs with less down-payment required than from 1970-2000… so although we have tightend up credit standards from “back in the day” they still are not tighter than they used to be for many years when we still had market ups and downs. I have no comment if the housing crash is coming we also still have a ton of demand Chinese money coming in as well. The crash will probably come when the scare and panic comes into the market and not some mechanics of the economic system. So we will see, but the argument that the loans are better is not a good one for the housing market prediction.
I think the real estate cycle model shown is flawed in one important respect “COMPRESSION” all forces that react on housing is faster and quicker to assemble today as never before, and the peaks and valleys of the chart will compress(get closer together)and be unpredictable based on the history of the housing market. We have never had wealth leaving this country as now along with jobs we are in an economic cycle as never experienced before; we have to reverse this trend and attract capital and jobs to this country to sustained upward growth and for that matter stop the exit of capital leaving this country.
If California doesn't find water…… yes. If the 'Oil Sands' states don't see a rise in oil prices…. yes.
If Texas doesn't see oil get back to 70 plus dollars a barrel, yes. If global warming heats up and florida goes under water…. yes. If nothing changes…. No everylthing will be fine… but we know in real estate that EVERYTHING changes!
While its true that last time around tons of BUYERS got loans to buy homes with lax underwriting standards, little income or no income verification and creative 100% or 100%+ financing and these loans were then spun off to unsuspecting investors who bought them. This Time Around; The type of EXTREMELY and some might argue “Artificially” low interest rates for such a prolong period of time that the FED has fostered has contributed to more and more folks taking on more and more debt to by More and More House!
I am thinking 2020 ish too…